Bye Bye Bogut

by Mitch Bruno

Those of you who read the blog know that I am a huge Bucks fans. And unless you are a huge Bucks fans, you rarely read about the Bucks and people’s opinions on the Bucks. So to enlighten you, I will enchant you with my opinion on the trade that sent Andrew Bogut to the Golden State Warriors in return for Monta Ellis. If you want to read the same opinion but more eloquently written go to the Bucks True Hoop blog, Bucksketball; they do a great job.

Earlier in the day on Tuesday, I read an article about the Bucks hesitation and ultimate rejection of a trade that included Andrew Bogut going to Golden State and Steph Curry and Robin Lopez going to the Bucks. I thought the Bucks should have gone through with the deal. They would have netted a potential, though injury prone star, (I know it sounds familiar) and another injury prone but young, average starting center. The only downside in this deal, besides the high probability of injuries preventing Curry and Lopez from reaching their potential, is the fact that it would have severely hampered the trade value of Jennings. I will contend though, that Jennings and Curry would have played well together and that Jennings’ departure from the team would have been far from imminent. With this deal their “young core” would have been: Jennings, Curry, Harris, Ilyasova, and Lopez. Though Harris, at this point, is a stretch to be included in everybody’s favorite rebuilding buzzword, you would have two potential all stars in the backcourt paired with a scrappy frontcourt. When healthy, this team would definitely be in the middle pack of the Eastern Conference and potentially be a part of that group of second tier teams along with Indiana and Philadelphia.

Before I bore you with what I wish would have happened instead of what actually happened, this rumor for most dedicated Bucks fans including myself, signaled that a trade including Bogut or Jennings was inevitable.

When the story broke that Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson were traded for Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh, and Kwame Brown, I had mixed reactions. And I still do. Before the trade was announced, I told my younger brother that Andrew Bogut was no longer a franchise center. His injuries the past several seasons no longer made him reliable, no matter how good of a player he was. Furthermore, Bogut at his best was arguably a top 5 center in the league and backup All Star. He was a player who was at the cusp of being a star, but due to injuries and age is likely never to become one. Bogut was a great Buck, a good player but an even better face of a franchise. He not only said the right things but also did the right things, things that Brandon Jennings is beginning to ignore. I really can’t say enough great things about Bogut but will end with saying that drafting Andrew Bogut first overall was NOT a mistake.

Getting rid of Stephen Jackson, for me, is irrelevant. Cap space isn’t really a big deal to a team that can’t lure big time free agents. Hopefully the departure of his negative attitude will also lead to the departure of Jennings’ sourness, but I am skeptical. Jennings’, like most people who are emotionally invested in the Bucks, is definitely exhausted with its lack of excitement and mediocre level of play.

Earlier I said that Bogut was arguably a top 5 center in the league and backup All Star. Monta Ellis, at his best, is probably a top 5 shooting guard and backup All Star in the league. Pretty even trade I guess, which ultimately is the reason why I have such mixed feelings. Ellis isn’t really an upgrade; he doesn’t really have the potential to be a huge upgrade. At worst the trade is a lateral move, and at best the trade is still a lateral move. Hammonds isn’t afraid to make these lateral moves, but don’t think it is possible in the NBA to methodically transform a perennial loser into a perennial contender. Making moves that incrementally improve your team doesn’t pay off.

I don’t dislike this trade, but I can’t say I am in love with it either. Ekpe Udoh could blossom under the tutelage of Scott Skiles and Drew Gooden. He will earn immediate playing time in the frontcourt due to his effort on defense. Ellis and Jennings could make for an electrifying back court, and maybe Ilyasova becomes that unconventional center that allows the team to play up tempo while still playing tough defense. Maybe this team surpasses the pitiful Knicks, the ancient Celtics, and the limping Hawks. What this trade doesn’t do is put them on that tier with Indiana and Philadelphia or potentially allows them to compete with Miami or Chicago.

A lot of Bucks fans will agree that they would rather see the Bucks win the lottery than make the playoffs. Really what is the difference between being horrible and average? This isn’t the NFL where parody exists. The Bucks refusal to properly rebuild and their insistence to compete for the last few playoff spots year after year allows them to do just that, compete for the last few playoff spots year after year. And this trade just perpetuates that.

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The Thunder’s Inevitability

by Mitch Bruno

I am in a really bad mood, so I am going to do something that I rarely do and that is be negative in regards to basketball.  Ask anyone I know (especially Jake) and they will tell you that I love every team and every player.  Just go back to my preview of the Suns last season and my belief that Hedo Turkoglu and Hakim Warrick could replace Amare Stoudemire; sometimes I even amaze myself in my glass ¼ full philosophy.

One of the reasons I wanted to start this blog was to have an outlet to share, with our diligent followers, my opinions on the NBA, especially those opinions that differ from the monopoly of opinions provided by ESPN.  I just saw an article on ESPN about how amazing the Thunder are, and how amazing Sam Presti is, and how he established the model for building an NBA championship caliber team.  Before I rip this article to pieces, I want to list a few concessions.  I love the Thunder; I think they are a great team and a fun team to watch.  Sam Presti is a great GM and I am sure others would have found a way to screw up this rebuilding process.  I think it is similar to Boise State as in you can only beat who you are scheduled to play, and it isn’t Sam Presti’s fault that Kevin Durant fell into his lap.  And yeah, I don’t like Boise State.

Let’s start there, Kevin Durant falling into Sam Presti’s lap.  Anybody who doesn’t make that pick is a complete idiot.  Having one of the top 5 players in the league goes a long way in being a top tier team.

One of the points the article makes is Presti’s decision to draft James Harden over Rubio, Curry, and Tyreke Evans.  I am a draft fanatic, doesn’t matter what sport (ok really who cares about the NHL draft).  I follow mock drafts; I create my own mock drafts; I read player profile after player profile.  I am no draft expert, but I consider myself well versed in the NBA draft.  James Harden was not an automatic selection, like Kevin Durant, but he was definitely rated higher than Curry and Evans.  With Russell Westbrook already established at point guard, Harden was really the most logical choice anyways.  Also who isn’t to say that Curry or Evans wouldn’t be just as good in Harden’s 6th man role instead having to carry the rest of their team.

The Serge Ibaka pick was great.  Not only was Presti able to identify one of the premier defensive big men in the game, but he was able to do it despite the Sonics horrific track record with African big men.  Johan Petro and Mouhamed Sene were awful.  Sam Presti, however, has made some questionable draft selections, especially in his quest to find an NBA starting caliber center.  The BJ Mullens experiment didn’t pan out, and though time will tell us whether or not Cole Aldrich will follow the same fate, his start hasn’t been too good.

Kenny P, Perk Money, Perk Nowitzki (OK I don’t really call him Perk Nowitzki, but it’s still funny) The Kendrick Perkins trade was absolute genius by Presti, wasn’t it?  Jeff Green is out for the season with heart issues, but Kendrick Perkins hasn’t been setting the world ablaze this year either.  His game and contributions on the court will never be truly appreciated or reflected by statistics, no matter how advanced.  Perkins player efficiency rating however is a horrible 6.7 this season and was 9.1 last season after joining the Thunder, both career lows.  His win share total for this year is .4, tied with Cole Aldrich who has logged 91 minutes compared to Perkins 821 minutes.  Perkins isn’t this bad of a player and his contributions off the court as a leader and veteran with playoff experience are unquantifiable, but it would be incorrect in thinking that the trading Jeff Green for Kendrick Perkins was a steal.

Moves to acquire Daequan Cook, Thabo Sefalosha, and Eric Maynor have been spot on.  Presti’s ability to surround his stars with complimentary role players has been almost flawless.  The NBA isn’t called the league of role players though, and to think that those players aren’t replaceable or are the main reasons for the Thunder success is funny.

Presti is a great GM, who has made some really great decisions as well as some questionable decisions.  The Thunder are different then the Timberwolves and the Wizards, because Kevin Durant fell in their lap.  Kevin Love is good but not Kevin Durant good.  John Wall is good, but he isn’t paired with two other top five picks; he plays with late lottery selections JaVale McGee and Nick Young.  The Thunder are great because of Presti and the situations they have been afforded.  The real test of Presti’s genius will be the length of the Thunder’s reign of being an elite NBA team and the number of championships they are able to win.

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Meet Your 2011-2012 Portland Trailblazers

by Mitch Bruno

Going into the 2010-2011 NBA season the Portland Trailblazers starting lineup was the following:

PG Andre Miller

SG Brandon Roy

SF Nicolas Batum

PF LaMarcus Aldridge

C  Marcus Camby

 

This season the Portland Trailblazers starting lineup consists of:

PG Raymond Felton

SG Wes Matthews

SF Gerald Wallace

PF LaMarcus Aldridge

C  Kurt Thomas

 

LaMarcus Aldridge is the only player from that ‘10-‘11 starting lineup remaining in the starting lineup.  Andre Miller was traded for Raymond Felton; Brandon Roy was forced to retire due to injuries; Nic Batum was moved to the bench to make room for Gerald Wallace; and to be honest Marcus Camby and Kurt Thomas are essentially a wash.  When looking at this team on paper, the differences stand out, but when watching them the only thing this year’s team appears to have in common with last year’s is their jerseys.  The Blazers were a young and exciting team.  NBA fans looking to jump on the trendy bandwagon immediately identified the talent of Aldridge, Roy, Batum, Bayless, and even Oden.  All under 26 at the start of last season, the young and skilled upstarts quickly became a team full of underappreciated veterans this season.  Prior to last season’s trade deadline, the Blazers began the transformation by using their surplus of draft picks to acquire the historically underrated Gerald Wallace. Next they set their sights on Raymond Felton.  He proved during the second half of last season with the Nugget that he wasn’t just a product Mike D’Antoni’s system, and with the emergence of Ty Lawson Felton became expendable.  Portland swooped in and again used the many draft picks they have acquired over the years to finally obtain a point guard that they appear to trust with running their team.

 

The common theme with those two acquisitions was the Blazer’s decision to finally part with some of its prized draft picks.  Hoarding draft picks like it’s going out of style, these mid first round picks have been nothing but trouble for the Blazers.  Jerryd Bayless and Rudy Fernandez flashed the potential of being NBA starters, while Elliot Williams and Luke Babbitt appear unlikely to even show that much.  The Blazers finally decided that substance and production were more important than youth and potential.

 

The stat that best quantifies the drastic makeover that this team has undergone is pace.  Prior to this season, Nate McMillian was constantly criticized for the team’s slow tempo.  Youthful, however not exactly the most athletic, the Blazers operated mainly out of half court sets.  Since the 2006-2007 season, the Blazers finished either last or second to last in fast break points per game.  Last season they finished last in pace (based on average number of possessions during a game).  This season however McMillian has loosened the reigns.  This season the Trailblazers are sixth in the league in pace.  A lineup featuring Aldridge and Wallace occupying the front court is common.  Combine that athleticism with Felton’s experience running Mike D’Anotoni’s fast pace offense, and Nate McMillian has had to adapt his coaching philosophy to maximize his players’ talents.

 

It also helps that Portland’s best player simply continues to improve.  LaMarcus Aldridge has become an absolute beast this year.  He has and needs to continue to carry this team. This season he has more than capably filled the role of go to scorer.  After a down year during the ’09-’10 season, Aldridge has entered the prime of his career.  He increased his player efficiency rating from 21.5 last season to 23.5 this season.  The difference between those two statistics is the difference between a top 25 player and a top 10 player.  The NBA is a league of stars and a top ten player is a star.  Aldridge, who like his Blazers teams of old, was young and skilled but not yet dominate.  This season, Aldridge has become the dominate, underrated veteran who is no longer flirting with star status, and being named one of the 20 finalists for the 2012 U.S. Olympic team is only the beginning.

 

This team may not be any better than the team that began the 2010 season.  They may be older, their ceiling may be lower, but Paul Allen recognized even before Roy’s injury issues that the roster that entered the 2010 season was not going to win an NBA title.  The NBA differs in life; in so much as people are creatures of habit, but in the NBA fans demand change.  The term blowing it up is often thrown around in hopes that it will bring about something better, because there is nothing really to lose except a few basketball games, right?

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Trying to Answer the Knicks’ Tough Questions

by Mitch Bruno

Why is Carmelo Anthony so bad this year?

Examining Carmelo’s advanced statistics it appears as if Carmelo isn’t having that bad of a year. His player efficiency rating is only 1.4 less than last season and still remains above 21. His win shares per 48 minutes is only .05 less than his average from last season, and again it is well above the league average (as it should be for a player of his stature and salary). One stat however, that is incredibly telling when looking at the struggles of not only Carmelo Anthony, but of the New York Knicks team as a whole, is the percentage of field goals that are assisted. Last season 45.7% of Carmelo’s field goals were assisted, this season only 29.5% of his field goals are assisted. That is the lowest in the league among non-point guards. Due in part to playing with a rookie, but also due to the seemingly selfish nature of the Knicks team, Carmelo is not receiving the same looks that he got last season. Though he is a player that relishes isolation and creating his own shot, it helps to have someone else that can create open looks, especially when he is struggling offensively.

 

Why is Amare Stoudemire so bad this year?

It seems that shot locations has become the popular advanced statistic this season. Examining the shot locations for Amare, what stands out is Amare’s decline in shot attempts within 10 feet of the hoop. Though his shot attempts are down as a whole, Amare is averaging one less shot attempt at the rim and two less shot attempts between 3 and 9 feet. The only shot location where is attempts are up are behind the 3 point arc, where he is averaging almost 1 more per game, up half an attempt from last season. It is critical that Amare get baskets that are close to the hoop. Though he is a competent jump shooter, the “easier” baskets tend to be at or near the rim. Amare is a great player, and whether it is the late start to the season or the condensed schedule compounding his problems; he should be able bounce back and regain his all-star form.

 

The Knicks best player this season is …?

Tyson Chandler. His win share total of 3 is third best in the entire NBA this season. If that isn’t shocking enough 2.1 of those win shares are offensive win shares, which is fifth best in the league. He has been by far the best free agent signing of this past offseason; and for those Knicks fans still clamoring for Chris Paul, Chandler has probably been the better player this season. (I am not crazy, Paul is obviously better long term and the Knicks would be stupid if they passed on an opportunity to still acquire Paul). It’s not like Chandler’s play has come out of nowhere, most of his advanced statistical rates are similar to last season. It is the fact that he is playing as well as last season, a career year; that is surprising. Often times players receive oversized contracts in the offseason and fail to live up to them, but throughout Chandler’s career he has avoided that trap.

 

Baron Davis?

He is a big question mark, but his play could provide some answers for this Knicks team. The point guard position has been the weak link this season for the Knicks, and the fact that Baron Davis could even be considered an upgrade is bad. What’s worse is the likelihood that he probably is an upgrade. Yes, Baron Davis is old, fat, out of shape, he even admits that, but “motivated” Davis is better offensively than both Bibby and Shumpert. In his worst season, besides his rookie year, he recorded a player efficiency rating (PER) of 14.5, only a bit lower than the league average of about 15. Mike Bibby has averaged a PER above 14.5 only once since the ’06-’07 season. Shumpert’s PER of 11.5 is not bad for a rookie, but not good enough for a starting point guard on a playoff bound team. Old and out of shape, Davis will need to play well with the rookie Shumpert just as he did last year with rookie Eric Bledsoe if he wants the chance to make one last playoff run. This was supposed to be the year that the Knicks reclaimed their glory.

 

After years of suffering, the Knicks were expected to challenge the Bulls and the Heat atop the Eastern Conference. There is still plenty of season yet, and though their playoff chances are currently very much in question they just need to get there. If the Knicks can figure it out and play their best basketball going into the playoffs, they have the talent on paper to compete with anyone in the league.

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Most Important Rookie

by Mitch Bruno
Rookies are all about potential and the future.  The aim of a rookie season is to play through the growing pains and to become acquainted with playing in the NBA, professionally.  For some rookies however, the stakes are higher.  For these four rookies, their performance this season has playoff implications for their teams.
For the first time in almost a decade, the New York Knicks are expected to make the playoffs.  The team signed Tyson Chandler to sure up their defensive and rebounding deficiencies and to allow Amare Stoudemire to play his more natural power forward position.  In order to make room for Chandler’s contract however, Chauncey Billups had to be released, leaving an enormous whole at the point guard position.  Drafted two years ago, Toney Douglas has “failed” (as much as a late first round pick can fail) to develop into a starting caliber point guard.  Mike Bibby couldn’t even make the Miami Heat roster.  This left this year’s first round pick, Iman Shumpert, to be the trigger man for Mike D’Antoni’s up tempo offense.  For a playoff caliber team, Shumpert will continue to be relied upon to initiate the offense and to distribute the ball between Anthony and Stoudemire. Steve Nash, Shumpert isn’t.  He lacks range on his jump shot and his court vision has been called into question, but his length and athleticism makes him an immediate contributor on the defensive end.  Anthony and Stoudemire have enough fire power offensively, so it is fine that Shumpert’s scoring will likely come in transition off of the turnovers he creates.  This Knicks’ roster is not one that D’Antoni is used to; more of an emphasis has been put on defense, and no one exemplifies this more than Shumpert.
When Danny Ainge traded away Kendrick Perkins, he couldn’t have possibly imagined it turning out this bad.  With Jeff Green out for the entire season, Boston’s lack of depth, youth, and athleticism has only become magnified.  After a poor start to the season, it appears as if Boston’s championship window has finally closed.  Any hope of it staying open this season, could come down to the play of Brian Scalabrine’s replacement as Boston fan favorite.  Greg “McSteamy” (for those Grey’s Anatomy fans), or “the Steamer” Stiemsma needs to, in essence, replace Kendrick Perkins’ defensive and rebounding prowess.  The unassuming 26 year old rookie has already become a cult favorite among NBA fanatics, thanks in part to his impressive 6 block performance against the Hornets earlier this season.  This lockout shortened and condensed season has and will continue to physically wear players out.  Veteran and injury prone starters Kevin Garnett and Jermaine O’Neal will not be able to stay healthy the entire season, and thus force the rookie, Stiemsma, to play significant minutes.  The 2010 NBA D-League Defensive Player of the Year has shown the potential to be a physical presence down low.  Although he should not be counted on to provide any offense, Stiemsma can come in and play physical defense against teams’ opposing big men.  He is a short term answer, but needs to play well if the Celtics want to even make the playoffs this year.
With 4 lottery picks from the past two drafts on their roster, the Utah Jazz are an odd team to say the least.  After Jerry Sloan’s retirement and the trading away of Deron Williams, it appeared that the Jazz were headed for period of rebuilding.  Winning 8 of their last 10 the Jazz find themselves with one of the best records in the Western Conference.  Similar to the Celtics, this lockout season has put a premium on depth, and the key bench player’s for the Jazz this season are a pair rookies.  The play of Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson will determine if the Jazz make the playoffs this season, but Enes Kantor will need to provide a boost off the bench.  Even more important with the recent injury to Derrick Favors, Kantor will have to sustain his fast start.  He ranks among the top ten in player efficiency rating among rookies averaging over 10 minutes per game.  A huge question remains when projecting his play going forward, how will sitting out last year’s college season affect him?  Will he hit the rookie wall earlier than usual, or could this hot start be just the start of a good season?  As the third pick in last year’s draft, the Jazz will surely hope for the latter.  Along with Kantor fellow lottery pick Alec Burks will be relied upon to provide quality minutes off the bench.  Whether filling in for Raja Bell at the 2 or Gordon Hayward at the 3, Burks will be expected to play through rookie growing pains if the Jazz want to make the playoffs.
Gregg Popovich has said that this year’s Spurs team is the worst defensive team he has ever coached.  The Spurs have been an excellent defensive team during Poppovich’s tenure as coach, but age has caught up to Tim Duncan and his teammates.  Acquired for their best perimeter defender (George Hill), rookie Kawhi Leonard must be able to shut down whatever opponent he draws.  His length and athleticism allows him to guard every position on the court except center.  Though he will be over matched, in order for the Spurs to compete with the elite in the West, Leonard will be given the task of containing Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, and Rudy Gay.  The Spurs’ success against these teams will largely be determined by their ability to limit those superstars.
The battle for rookie of the year between Ricky Rubio and Kyrie Irving will definitely be exciting, but basketball isn’t all fun and games.  Sometimes basketball is about winning (even the NBA) and these four rookies play an important role in their team winning and winning in the postseason.
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NBA Podcast: Nate meets Brian Orakpo

by Jake Grubman

Mitch makes his triumphant return as he joins Nate and Jake on a Friday night to discuss the league’s most surprising starts, from L.A. to L.A. and everywhere in between. Wait a minute… Oh yeah, also Dallas, Memphis, Miami, and the rest of the league’s top tier, along with Charlotte, Minnesota, and the rest of the league’s, well, not-top tier.

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Bulls vs. Lakers Live Chat

by Jake Grubman

Join Nate and Jake for the first-every MFBarkley Live Chat. Read more…

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Game Recap: Celtics-Knicks

by Nate Grubman

After a long layoff, game one of the 2011-12 season was worth the wait.

Although New York won the game, my eye was on Rajon Rondo. For the second year in a row, Rondo took the floor for the NBA’s season opener and imposed his will on the game. Last year, I wrote, “Rondo shot the ball 2-9 for 4 points, and yet, he was far and away Boston’s best player. On a night in which Boston hit just 32 shots, Rondo racked up an assist on 17 of them. Throw in his two baskets and Boston only hit 13 Rondofree buckets.”

This year, with the Celtics limping out of the gate without Paul Pierce, Rondo was almost as impressive. When the Celtics started slowly offensively, Rondo shouldered the scoring load, knocking down his shots and scoring nine of the team’s first 12 points. With the Celtics continuing to struggle in the second quarter, Rondo poured in ten more, including eight in the final four-and-a-half minutes. In the third quarter, when the Celtics turned a ten-point deficit into an eight-point lead, Rondo notched ten points on a mix of lay-ups and free throws. Read more…

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Nate’s Regular Season Rankings

by Nate Grubman

30) Charlotte (13-53)

The good news? Boris Diaw was once referred to as a classical individual by living legend Bill Walton. The bad news? Boris Diaw is now the starting center for the Bobcats who were somehow, in a supposed age of austerity, priced out of the Kwame Brown market. Also, Boris Diaw reportedly is currently tipping the scales at 305 pounds. Unless Kemba Walker wins Rookie of the Century, this team will be very bad at basketball. Read more…

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NBA Podcast: 2011-2012 Season Preview

by Jake Grubman

Nate and Jake are back for the biggest podcast of them all, the Season Preview Podcast. We’ve got record predictions and thoughts on every team, with finals and championship picks. It’s all down hill from here.

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